Obama and the Jews: disruption or continuity?
So it will be Barack Obama. A magnificent campaign, an extraordinary country. Exactly sixty years after the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, an African American is elected to the most powerful position in the world. Racism has been sent to the refuse bin of history. As Jews, let us greet the power of this symbol.
The personality of the President of the United States and his ideas on the Middle East will have major repercussions on Israel’s policy. Personal relations between the leaders of the two countries have often played a decisive role.
Three months after the American election, Israelis will also be voting to replace their Prime Minister. The world’s two largest Jewish communities will therefore have had to express their opinion for these capital choices. (…)
Obama’s victory is clear and the Jewish vote had no influence. It had been intensely courted. (…) How did Jews vote? Surveys show a majority of between 60 and 70% for Obama, even though Mc Cain was unanimously considered to be close ally of Israel. (…). This has in fact been a constant: the only Republican to have garnered more Jewish votes than a Democrat was the very mediocre President Harding in 1920, because 40% of Jews had voted for a socialist who obtained… 3% of the votes. This underlines the revolutionary commitment of many Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe. Their children have for the most part remained faithful to the Democrats and have been major supporters of that party.
(…) No one can predict what Obama’s policy will be towards Israel, for which he did not spare his declarations of friendship during the campaign. The incendiary declarations of his former pastor or those of Jesse Jackson seem to be outside the scope of those involved in any decisions, but his links with Khalidi, a professor at Columbia University, seem real. The worrying choice of Brzezinski as an advisor was followed by the importance given to Dennis Ross and other friends of Israel. Above all it is geostrategic constraints – and common sense – that will limit the possible shifts in alliances, all the more so as Barack Obama is highly pragmatic. The support of the American population for Israel is very strong, despite the increasing number of denunciations of the “pro-Israeli lobby” (cf. the mediocre book by Mearsheimer and Walt), and despite the fact that accusations that “Zionists” have been behind the recent financial crisis have, as usual, found their way into the gutters of Internet.
We all know that the most serious and pressing foreign policy issue is going to be Iran, where the failure of economic measures is obvious and where we can no longer afford to be naively optimistic. The new president of the USA will need to take difficult and possibly unpopular decisions. Let us wish him lucidity and courage, which are not incompatible with his message of fraternity.
Richard Prasquier
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