According to Professor Perrineau, the fundamental issues that led to what happened in 2002 are still there: social malaise, identity crisis, concerns in the area of security. In polls on voting intentions, Jean-Marie Le Pen comes considerably higher than in the past. This indicates the possibility of a good score by the leader of the National Front. The only novelty with respect to 2002 is that the candidates from the two main parties (the Socialist Party and the conservative UMP) are significantly higher in the polls than were Jacques Chirac and Lionel Jospin five years ago. It isn’t therefore that Le Pen is lower in the polls, but the two PS and UMP candidates who are getting higher voting intentions. One last novelty is worth mentioning: the French right has for a long time been seeking a man capable of picking up a part of the National Front electorate. It seemed it would never find him. Nicolas Sarkozy, for the moment, is “speaking” to a minority of Frontist voters and it seems he might be able to bring them back into the classic conservative fold.
For the time being, issues concerning employment and social concerns (the fight against discrimination, the future of the French social model, etc.) seem to dominate the debate. However, some issues such as insecurity and immigration, as well as issues concerning education and the national debt, are also coming high on the agenda and, depending on the current situation at the time or if there is some major crisis, they might come back to the political forefront and disturb the traditional agenda.
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